12/12/2020 September Run - a Winx replicaThe sight of September Run ( Exceed And Excel - Pittsburgh Flyer, by Street Cry ) thundering down the Flemington straight six in another dominant last to first performance over the Melbourne Spring Carnival stamped her as a potential freak and almost undoubtedly crowned her as the best current sprinter in Australasia.
Not since the days of "the grey flash" Chautauqua have we seen a sprinter give them all a head start and then pick them up and put them away with such arrogant ease. The ability to do this oozes Class and extraordinary ability which can only come from superior inherent genes. Perhaps the most resonating factor watching September Run in victories such as her most recent, the Group 1 Coolmore Classic, was just how much she looked like Winx in physical ( phenotype ) resemblance although colour wise she leans a little more to true bay with Winx more a dark bay or dark brown. Could she take over from Winx as the next Australian "people's horse". Possibly so. With her white bridle and similar stature trainer Chris Waller has her very much resembling his former champion mare, perhaps a timely reminder that as one star disappears another arises in it's place. With 5 wins now from just 8 starts and $1,183,300 already in the kitty as well as achieving Group 1 winning status, September Run is a long way off the lofty achievements of Winx and her 33 consecutive wins from 43 starts including 25 Group 1 wins ( a World Record ) and $26,451,176 in the bin at distances ranging from 1300m to 2200m. But she has time on her side as a current 3yo given Winx raced through to a 7 year old. Apart from both being females, having the same trainer, and similar in stature, there are also from a breeding enthusiast's perspective there are two principal pedigree common denominators that link September Run and Winx. The first of these is that they both hold close-up presences of the highly influential stallion Street Cry in their respective pedigrees. Street Cry is the sire of Winx hence appearing in her 1st generation and he is the damsire of September Run hence appearing in her 2nd generation. Given that he places so prominently in the pedigrees of both Winx and September Run then he has got to be of considerable influence in both horses both physically ( via phenotype ) and genetically ( via genotype ). It could be forces at work in behind Street Cry's pedigree that have most likely shaped these two mares' superior racetrack performance most likely through the likes of Machiavellian and Riverman in particular. In Winx we have Machiavellian's dam Coup De Folie close-up linebred at 3x3 to Almahmoud through her daughters Cosmah ( dam of Halo ) and Natalma ( dam of Raise The Standard who herself is the dam of Coup De Folie ). This pattern is reinforced in Winx's female pedigree where her granddam Vegas Magic is by Voodoo Rhythm, a son of Northern Dancer, the latter a son of Natalma hence offering the perfect sex-balance to trigger the female presences at play in Machiavellian. And we should also acknowledge the presence of Riverman in Street Cry. Riverman appears in the pedigree of numerous elite racehorses, females in particular where his presences feature in the likes of Goldikova and Zenyatta to name a couple quickly. He is hugely under-estimated in pedigrees and appears to play a key role in facilitating acceleration or " a turn of foot". In Sptember Run's pedigree we see things working a little in reverseto the way Winx's genetics have unfolded. Her Maciavellian influences are coming through her dam Pittsburgh Flyer who also carries Northern Dancer through the latter's son Lyphard. This complex but well constructed Almahmoud / Natalma pattern within the pedigree of September Run's dam Pittsburgh Flyer was always going to be well-received by September Run's sire Exceed And Excel if for no other reason than it was going to be feeding back to the very breeding core or "engine room" of Exceed And Excel who is bred none other than on a 4x4 reverse-sex cross to Natalma through son Northern Dancer and adding a new sibling in Spring Adieu. How could it fail? And like Winx, September Run also benefits from the presence of Riverman in Street Cry with the positive traits that he has to offer. We mentioned a little earlier about September Run and Winx having two pedigree common denominators. The first of these has been explained above and the second relates to September Run and Winx descending from the same maternal family i.e.Family 5. Bruce Lowe's Family Numbers has Family 5 as descending from The Massey Mare by Mr Massey's Black Barb - dam unknown. Tesiopower's Tail Female Lines show Family 5 as far back as Old Ebony, a mare born in 1714 by Basto ( 1702 ) out of an unknown mare. Old Ebony is shown as Winx 22nd dam and September Run's 24th dam. Old Ebony had a daughter to Flying Childers named Ebony in 1728. Ebony had two daughters; Y Ebony ( to Crab in 1742 ) and Y Cartouch ( to Cartouch in 1750 ). From each of these branches did September Run and Winz descend. Y Ebony was to become the 22nd dam of September Run and Y Cartouch the 20th dam of Winx. It was not until some considerable time later that Y Cartouch's branch of Family 5 would become 5-b and Y Ebony's branch would become Family 5-h. So bizzare knowing we would be exploring the feats of two potentially great Australian female Champions of the Turf not knowing in the first instance that they had a little more in common than we first realised. We will continue to follow the racetrack exploits of September Run with great interest and who knows, if she manages to snare a couple of Everest's like the admirable Redzel then it may become "game on" in terms of giving Winx's lifetime earnings a bit of a scare.
0 Comments
12/12/2020 Working with Tesiopower: Part 2When constructing a pedigree based on either linebreeding or outcrossing principles it is an advantage to be able to check that the genetic cocktail that you have put together is actually producing the outcome that you are seeking.
For example, you may have a young racemare fresh off the track that had a distinct staying aptitude. Let's assume that she was well-performed and peaked with maturityand is deemed as a Commercial mare from which you plan to breed for the Sales. She lacked a bit of top end speed or turn of foot and definitely lacked precocity. She may need a stallion with high speed ( probably a sprinting stallion ) as well as one who is injecting very early maturity ( probably a stallion who is a recognised producer of juvenile performance ). By utilising the Dosage Icon within the Tesiopower programme for a particular test-mating we can immediately see if the chosen stallion is indeed having the soughtafter impact on the proposed foal's likely Dosage Profile ( otherwise referred to as an Aptitude Profile ). Whilst never one hundred percent guaranteed, the Dosage Profile is the best indicator we have to work with at the moment thanks to the upgrading work in 2002 of Dr Steve Roman and William Hewitt, the latter bringing in the American greats in 1977 as the early dosage work focussed on European performance only through the work of founding pioneers, firstly Lt Col J.J.Vuiller and then Franco Varola. It is not our intention here to go into the deep mechanics of how dosage operates other than to very briefly summarise it's workings. Based on largely superior male performers over time who are termed Chefs-de-Race, each Chefs De Race was placed into one of five categories based on race performance. The categories presented what was known as a Dosage Profile and comprised Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid and Professional classifications. Points were allocated to each Chefs-de-Race based on his appearance in the pedigree at particular generational levels. For example, the 1st generational level incurred 16 points, the 2nd level 8 points, the 3rd level 4 points and the 4th generational level 2 points. It was not uncommon for some elite male ancestors to have their points split and equally allocated to two category types e.g. Brilliant and Classic. In the perfect world an equal balance of sprinting and stamina qualities throwing a Normal Distribution Curve may be desirable but there are many reasons why breeders are breeding a horse including going down a sprinter's path or focussing exclusively on a staying type or wanting to focus on a likely juvenile type. In our work with dosages the points tally for the summationof each of the five classifications is not as important as the balance of the spread in order to achieve a well-equipped all round racehorse. To highlight what we are talking about here we will randomly summarise the Dosage Profiles of Sunline and High Chaparral. Sunline High Chaparral Brilliant 4.0 7.5 Intermediate 5.0 5.5 Classic 8.5 23.0 Solid 2.5 9.5 Professional 1.0 2.5 Total: 21.0 48.0 Although the above Dosage Profile totals appear wide apart the key point is the distribution balance rather than the totals per se. Both were elite racehorses. What High Chaparral offered as a stallion was a high infusion of Class predecessors up close in a pedigree match, something absolutely excellent to upgrade a mare's pedigree to the benefit of her foal. From the five classifications as outlined above Tesiopower delivers a Speed / Stamina Index with Speed set to a maximum of +2.0 and Stamina set to a maximum of -2.0. From this we can ascertain a horse's likely Centre of Distribution towards either speed or stamina. From left to right the Brilliant, Intermediate and half of the Classic categories are found in the left half i.e.Speed half of the Speed / Stamina Index and half of the Classic and all of the Solid and Professional categories are to be found in the right half or the Stamina half of the Speed / Stamina Index. Sunline has a Centre of Distribution of 0.40, this sitting comfortably in the Speed sector whilst High Chaparral has a Centre of Distribution of 0.12 placing him just inside the Speed sector. If this Centre of Distribution had jumped to the Stamina side the you would have expected a pretty dour sort of animal more akin to a Secured Deposit type. A third associated measure that we find more than useful is the Dosage Index. This is a great indicator of where a foal from a mating is likely to settle in terms of it's own aptitude. We call this it's likely Aptitude Profile. Again from left to right we run through five different categories with Earlycomer and Sprinter on the left side of the Centre of Distribution and Miler, Middle Distance and Stayer placed on the right side of the Centre of Distribution. If we go back to Sunline her Dosage Index is 1.71 which has her placed just inside a Middle Distance category i.e. a 2000-2200 metre horse maximum, about as ideal as you could get for a Cox Plate horse. High Chaparral on the other hand has a Dosage Index of 1.04 placing him on the outer edge of Middle Distance and on the cusp of Stayer so once again ideal as a Derby aspirant. No surprises then that he put an English and an Irish Derby on his resume. Before we conclude, a quick word on a recent impressive 6 lengths debut maiden winner in New Zealand who turned a lot of heads with his ultra quick time. His name is One More Time, a son of the Street Cry stallion Per Incanto. One More Time's Dosage Profile is as follows; Brilliant 5.0 Intermediate 2.5 Classic 7.5 Solid 0.0 Professional 1.0 Total: 16.0 This is a Speed /Stamina Index that is geared towards Speed with a Centre of Distribution of 0.66 so we are more than likely looking at a sprinter / miler here with maturity. This is further confirmed if we look at the resultant Dosage Index of 2.37 which pinpoints perhaps a dead set miler with maturity. Footnote: We mentioned earlier on that Tesiopower Dosage indicators are not an exact science and occasionally toss up an exception. In 2005 Wahid ( Almutawakel - Rory's Helen, by Rory's Jester )was down to debut in the 1200m Wakefield Challenge Stakes, from the Sharrock barn at Waitara. We had done our due diligence on his Tesiopower Aptitude Profile which gave us tremendous confidence to have a healthy wager on him in this race. He didn't let us down, romping home and paying handsomely more because of the "unknown factor" than anything else. But Tesiopower had indicated to us that he would be a big chance if he lived up to his profile. His Dosage Profile read like this; Brilliant 17.0 Intermediate 3.0 Classic 9.0 Solid 0.0 Professional 2.0 Total: 31.0 With a Centre of Distribution of 1.06 for his Speed / Stamina Index ( way skewed towards Speed ) and a Dosage Index of 3.77 ( just into the realms of a Sprinter and near bordering on a precocious Earlycomer ) there was no way anything pointed towards him winning the 2006 NZ Derby ( despite starting the favourite minus my money this time ) but win it he did with a slashing turn of foot at the business end. It was an appropriate reminder that young horses can do what they are not bred to do against their own Age Group and that Dosage Profiles are not a completely foolproof tool. 12/10/2020 Working with Tesiopower: Part 1In my role as a pedigree consultant specialising in Thoroughbred pedigrees throughout Australasia I am reliant on two major tools above all else for putting together planned matings.
The first of these is my own brain ( predominantly for memory function ) and the second is my brain assist ( otherwise known as my Tesiopower thoroughbred computer programme ). The Tesiopower Thoroughbred Breeding Package ( available via disc ) has been the "go to" tool at the heart of my business. There are alternative computer breeding packages on the market but we prefer to keep it simple and very user friendly. Tesiopower provides multiple functions and yet some of these are only used on an occasional basis. The key ones that are used, are heavily used, and we would like to share the use of these with you. In summary these functions are; 7-Generation Pedigree Report ( for an individual or a test-mating ) Tail Lines Function Test Mating Report Linebreeding Report Add Horse Function Some of these reports can overlap slightly but we will endeavour to briefly highlight the value of each as we work through each of them. Breeding a top flight equine product is all about maximising it's two principal components; genotype ( genetic match ) and phenotype ( physical match ) between the two proposed parents. There are essentially three forms of breeding method that a breeder can adopt; Outcrossing ( for hybrid vigour ) Linebreeding ( compounding one or more favoured ancestors, male or female ) "Breeding To The Best And Hoping For The Best" Each of these has it's own band of supporters. The Tesiopower Thoroughbred Breeding Package does not allow us to apply the phenotype test ( Stallion Directories with photos are normally the best source here or better still personal inspection ) but it does have a major role to play in the genotype test. It is perhaps fair to say that the practice of "breeding the best to the best and hoping for the best" is also largely conducted outside the realms of Tesiopower, but Outcrossing and Linebreeding practices fit firmly within it's scope. When we first receive a mare from a client to assess for mating recommendations we will run a 7-Generation Pedigree Report on that mare. The value of this report is that it allows us to sight a mare's 7-generation pedigree via a single page. This report also defines duplicated male forebears ( coloured blue ) from duplicated influential female forebears ( coloured red ). By then utilising the Colour Duplications icon we can then immediately ascertain where these occur in the pedigree hence defining a start point from which we can build a stronger pedigree outcome. If the mare is not in the Tesiopower database, then we have the flexibility to utilise the Add Horse icon and manually build and load that mare's pedigree into the database permanently. We can do likewise for the new stallions that arise each season and we also have the luxury of adding un-named or unregistered mares to the database by allocating them a bogus name if necessary. So there is great flexibility with this tool which is one we use regularly. The 7-Generation Pedigree Report is lifeblood to us as we use this to identify the strengths and weaknesses in a mare's pedigree and to build on both of these albeit whether she possesses an outcrossed pedigree or one leaning towards linebreeding. This is where we earn our dollars. This is the stage where the hard core analysis takes place that determines what we need to do with the pedigree to improve upon it for the maximum benefit of her foal. There are a dozen or more breeding techniques that apply in this process. These particularly come into play where it is deemed that we can improve the linebreeding componentry of the mare ( there may be a number of things that she is deficient on from sex-balancing lines through to sire or sireline traits and attributes and beyond ). We also look at the mix of forebears ( both male and female ) to see if these can be built upon ( if required ) and also that which is missing that may add complementary traits or attributes to those already present, The aim is to build a pedigree that equips the foal with a full genetic arsenal of positive attributes that complement one another especially with racetrack battle in mind. It is at this stage that we also run a Linebreeding Report that is particularly useful as it confirms not only the percentage of linebreeding that a mare already holds in her pedigree but also repetitions to each of the duplicated forebears ( male or female ) and by what generation and sex they occur so we can instantly tell if these are already sex-balanced or otherwise as well as determining the percentage componentry of each individual forebear in the mare or proposed foal.The value of Linebreeding Reports also lies in the fact that they can be re-run from a test-mating to ascertain the same information for the proposed foal. For an already heavily linebred mare it may be considered an appropriate time to mate her with an outcross stallion ( i.e. a stallion offering very little in the way of common forebear duplications within his first 4-5 generations ). A heavily linebred stallion may also realise best results with an outcross pedigreed mare. Next step is to heavily peruse the mare's maternal bloodlines including any duplications to broodmare gems and in particular at the mare's direct maternal ( tail female ) bloodlines also noting the Family Number to whom she belongs. By utilising the Tesiopower Tail Lines function we can actually identify her tail line descent literally back to the taproot female founder of her Family. These may present development opportunities as we begin to construct the foal's pedigree. They can also reflect the strength of a mare's direct maternal ( tail female ) bloodline and if it may have a common denominator with any of the available stallions for linebreeding opportunities in particular. Once we have ascertained the key "missing links" it is then time to run the more time consuming job of the Test Mating Reports with either all the available stallions or as tailored by the client. These may be Commercial stallions only, or limited to a specific State or Island, or determined by having a financial cap i.e.stallions up to the value of $10,000. We fit in with client's requests here. Tesiopower offers a Test Mating which we utilise extensively, printing out all matings that at first glance appear to meet a number of the identified criteria that we are seeking to complement the mare's pedigree, a shortlist if you like though sometimes it can top more than a dozen. It is from this list that we determine our most suited consorts for a mare. Here we can once again use the Colour Duplication icon to quickly define possible "building blocks" for pedigree matching purposes. Tesiopower also offers a function called Stallion Finder. By inserting a mare's name, you can assess a mare against all the available stallions in the database by individual country. It allocates points for duplications on a scaled basis ( CDT or LB factors ) but we find this aligns heavily with linebreeding principles and makes outcrossing look less desirable ( lower scores ) when that option should be pursued in certain cases. So our use of this function is more limited but we do concede that it can be useful on occasions as a pointer to a mare biased to a certain sireline through her own pedigree makeup. We also find the Stallion Finder tool can date very quickly as a new wave of stallions appear each season hence limiting it's use as a "go to" function. The above provide the "tools of the trade" but may not produce a top racetrack performer on their own. They say "knowledge is power" ( we refer here to the human brain and memory specifically ) and it is this analytical component that completes the making of a good horse. Whilst the Tesiopower package can play it's part in the process of designing a good horse, it does not know the individual traits and attributes of sirelines or individual stallions or of influential male ancestors or superior female forebears and it is knowing these that allows one to piece all the individual components of the jigsaw together. These are our "secrets of the trade" and the ones from which we earn our living. And this is a world away from "Breeding To The Best And Hoping For The Best" which is suggestive of a lack of homework and more akin to buying a Lotto ticket. We acknowledge that there are no guarantees in breeding horses but there is a lot of satisfaction to be gained from a thoughtfully constructed pedigree every time success is met on the racetrack be it a maiden victory or one at elite level. Finally, we would also like to dispel the myth that a good horse cannot have it's beginnings from a computer. It simply can. We believe we have proved this multiple times at Premier Pedigrees and we are extremely grateful to Tesiopower for the role it plays in each and every one of our successful racetrack productions. Part 2 of Working with Tesiopower and it's role in planning matings will focus on the more controversial topic of Dosage Indexes and likely Aptitude Profiles and how these can be used as a possible indicator of your foal's likely racetrack prowess. |
AuthorPremier Pedigrees was born out of Ken Mackay's passion for horse pedigrees to offer a very affordable pedigree matching service and valuable recommendations to new and existing Australian and New Zealand clients for both thoroughbred and standardbred mares. Archives
December 2023
Categories |