MAGIC MILLIONS YEARLING SALES 2024 - BOOK 1 & 2.
In the two weeks or so of the recent Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival at Flemington the following two members of the fairer sex captured 3 x Group 1's between them, PRIDE OF JENNI and JOLIESTAR.
Both horses are fine advertisements for the GREEN DOTS breeding programme which PREMIER PEDIGREES is now utilising.
PRIDE OF JENNI - 7 X GREEN DOTS ( 2 IN THE OTC POSITION ), 1 X YELLOW DOT
JOLIESTAR - 3 X GREEN DOTS ( 1 IN THE OTC POSITION ), 4 YELLOW DOTS
We leave the physical inspection and type approval to your expertise.
Where we can assist is in the area of pedigree/bloodline department utilising our highly accurate GREEN DOTS breeding programme to detect likely superior runners.
In particular, we can detect the level of GREEN DOTS in the aspirational OTC ( Off The Charts ) position where great champions of the breed are to be found.
No guarantees of course of a champion but it can assist greatly in avoiding costly mistakes.
For only $10 per individual Yearling we can provide you with a heads up on ehether you are proposing to purchase a likely runner or a potential flop.
Discounts are available for more than 10 Yearlings required for assessment.
Payment can be made by Mastercard or Visa ( for Australian clients ) via our website www.premierpedigrees.com by clicking on our CONTACT header and scrolling down to the PAY NOW button.
Contact us now via email at firstname.lastname@example.org with details of your Lot Numbers for assessment and in your quest to find the next PRIDE OF JENNI or JOLIESTAR.
Our reply will be emailed to you without delay pending payment clearance.
Followers may recall our article of 9 April 2023 captioned "Soulcombe - Melbourne Cup 2023 - patience the key to reward.
We were so close in our prediction and left pondering if only he had not dwelt at the start losing those 3 or 4 lengths. Having said this, nothing can be taken away from Without A Fight who deserved his victory and won convincingly.
But what a result the 2023 Melbourne Cup was for our new Pedigrees360 Breeding For The Green Dots breeding programme.
We ran through all the 2023 starters pre-race ( should have posted them ) whittling it down to 12 runners pointed to by this programme.
In saddlecloth order these were;
Alenquer - 4 Green Dots, 3 Yellow Dots
Without A Fight - 3 Green Dots, 4 Yellow Dots
Soulcombe - 2 Green Dots, 5 Yellow Dots, 1 Red Dot
Absurde - 1 Green Dot ( 1 x OTC ), 7 Yellow Dots
Right You Are - 4 Green Dots, 4 Yellow Dots
Ashrun - 4 Green Dots, 3 Yellow Dots
Sheraz - 2 Green Dots ( 1 x OTC ), 6 Yellow Dots
Lastotchka - 5 Green Dots ( 1 x OTC ), 2 Yellow Dots
Magical Lagoon - 3 Green Dots ( 1 x OTC ), 4 Yellow Dots
Serpentine - 2 Green Dots, 5 Yellow Dots, 1 Red Dot
Interpretation - 3 Green Dots, 5 Yellow Dots
Kalapour - 3 Green Dots, 5 Yellow Dots.
From a punter's perspective the Green Dot programme included both the $11,700 trifecta and the $332,000 first four.
From a breeders' perspective how can you afford to not utilise the Green Dots breeding programme with your mare to give her the same sort of chance as above?
A RARE OPPORTUNITY FOR THE AUSTRALASIAN BREEDER LIKE NEVER BEFORE...........
BREEDING TO THE GREEN DOTS.
A revolutionary new thoroughbred breeding programme to produce tomorrow's elite runners and endorsed by the champions of yesterday.
Now you too have an opportunity to strive for the Green Dots in the aspirational OTC ( Off The Charts ) position to breed your best runner.
Whilst there can be no guarantees, of course, you will find from the following listed examples sufficient compelling evidence to prove both it's reliability and accuracy.
Best of all, we can offer this service for you.
5 Green Dots in the OTC Position:
Let's Elope - 7 Green Dots, 1 Yellow Dot
Danzig - 6 Green Dots, 2 Yellow Dots
Somethingroyal - 6 Green Dots, 2 Yellow Dots
4 Green Dots in the OTC Position:
Cigar - 4 Green Dots, 3 Yellow Dots
Kindergarten - 4 Green Dots, 4 Yellow Dots
Bonecrusher - 6 Green Dots, 2 Yellow Dots
Our Poetic Prince - 5 Green Dots, 3 Yellow Dots
Hyperion - 5 Green Dots, 3 Yellow Dots
American Pharoah - 5 Green Dots, 3 Yellow Dots
Danehill - 6 Green Dots, 2 Yellow Dots
Dubai Millennium - 5 Green Dots, 3 Yellow Dots
Luskin Star - 8 Green Dots
Winx - 5 Green Dots, 3 Yellow Dots
Surround - 6 Green Dots, 2 Yellow Dots
Horlicks - 7 Green Dots
La Troienne - 6 Green Dots, 2 Yellow Dots
Dancing Show - 6 Green Dots, 1 Yellow Dot
Gunsynd - 6 Green Dots, 1 Yellow Dot
3 Green Dots in the OTC Position:
Carbine - 5 Green Dots, 1 Yellow Dot
Frankel - 5 Green Dots, 3 Yellow Dots
Golden Sixty - 5 Green Dots, 3 Yellow Dots
Alleged - 5 Green Dots, 3 Yellow Dots
Rising Fast - 5 Green Dots, 3 Yellow Dots
Galilee - 5 Green Dots, 2 Yellow Dots
Round Table - 4 Green Dots, 3 Yellow Dots
Goldikova - 5 Green Dots, 3 Yellow Dots
Sunline - 6 Green Dots, 2 Yellow Dots
The Filbert - 6 Green Dots, 2 Yellow Dots
Leilani - 7 Green Dots, 1 Yellow Dot
Toussaud - 5 Green Dots, 3 Yellow Dots
2 Green Dots in the OTC Position:
Rough Habit - 6 Green Dots, 2 Yellow Dots
Galileo - 3 Green Dots, 5 Yellow Dots
Better Loosen Up - 5 Green Dots, 3 Yellow Dots
Apache Cat - 5 Green Dots, 3 Yellow Dots
Super Impose - 7 Green Dots, 1 Yellow Dot
Tulloch - 2 Green Dots, 2 Yellow Dots
Kingston Town - 4 Green Dots, 3 Yellow Dots
Dulcify - 6 Green Dots, 2 Yellow Dots
Secretariat - 6 Green Dots, 2 Yellow Dots
Phar Lap - 6 Green Dots, 2 Yellow Dots
Uncle Remus - 6 Green Dots, 2 Yellow Dots
Rachel Alexandra - 6 Green Dots, 2 Yellow Dots
Plucky Liege - 8 Green Dots
Battle Eve - 5 Green Dots
Battle Heights - 5 Green Dots, 3 Yellow Dots
Balmerino - 3 Green Dots, 3 Yellow Dots
Il Tempo - 4 Green Dots, 3 Yellow Dots
Great Sensation - 5 Green Dots, 2 Yellow Dots
1 Green Dot in the OTC Position:
Vain - 7 Green Dots, 1 Yellow Dot
Red Anchor - 6 Green Dots, 2 Yellow Dots
Ben Lomond - 3 Green Dots, 4 Yellow Dots
Northern Dancer - 4 Green Dots, 2 Yellow Dots
Tobin Bronze - 4 Green Dots, 3 Yellow Dots
I Wish I Win - 4 Green Dots, 3 Yellow Dots
Manikato - 5 Green Dots, 3 Yellow Dots
Mufhasa - 5 Green Dots, 3 Yellow Dots
Castletown - 2 Green Dots, 5 Yellow Dots
Grand Armee - 2 Green Dots, 5 Yellow Dots
California Chrome - 3 Green Dots, 4 Yellow Dots
Mr Brightside - 1 Green Dot, 3 Yellow Dots
Might And Power - 5 Green Dots, 3 Yellow Dots
Paddington - 5 Green Dots, 2 Yellow Dots
St Simon - 4 Green Dots, 1 Yellow Dot
Think It Over - 5 Green Dots, 3 Yellow Dots
Shergar - 4 Green Dots, 4 Yellow Dots
McGinty - 4 Green Dots, 4 Yellow Dots
Zenyatta - 5 Green Dots, 3 Yellow Dots
Desert Gold - 4 Green Dots, 3 Yellow Dots
Black Caviar - 3 Green Dots, 4 Yellow Dots
Fury's Order - 3 Green Dots, 3 Yellow Dots
Panzer Chief - 1 Green Dot, 3 Yellow Dots
Almond Eye - 2 Green Dots, 4 Yellow Dots
Empire Rose - 6 Green Dots, 2 Yellow Dots
Selene - 4 Green Dots, 4 Yellow Dots
Probabeel - 5 Green Dots, 2 Yellow Dots
Mustang Valley - 4 Green Dots, 2 Yellow Dots
Eight Carat - 3 Green Dots, 5 Yellow Dots
0 Green Dots in the OTC Position:
Gloaming - 5 Green Dots, 2 Yellow Dots
Lucky Sweynesse - 5 Green Dots, 3 Yellow Dots
Ethereal - 4 Green Dots, 4 Yellow Dots
Veandercross - 4 Green Dots, 3 Yellow Dots
Nature Strip - 6 Green Dots, 2 Yellow Dots
Think About It - 3 Green Dots, 4 Yellow Dots
Chautauqua - 3 Green Dots, 4 Yellow Dots
Atishu - 7 Green Dots, 1 Yellow Dot
Giga Kick - 7 Yellow Dots, 1 Red Dot
Crocetti - 4 Green Dots, 4 Yellow Dots
Without A Fight - 3 Green Dots, 4 Yellow Dots
Saintly - 3 Green Dots, 4 Yellow Dots
Makybe Diva - 2 Green Dots, 4 Yellow Dots, 2 Red Dots
Tofane - 2 Green Dots, 5 Yellow Dots, 1 Red Dot
Show Gate - 4 Green Dots, 3 Yellow Dots
Verry Elleegant - 4 Green Dots, 3 Yellow Dots
Vosne Romanee - 4 Green Dots, 2 Yellow Dots
Beauty Generation - 3 Green Dots, 4 Yellow Dots
Kiwi - 3 Green Dots, 4 Yellow Dots
Melody Belle - 3 Green Dots, 4 Yellow Dots
Yonce - 3 Green Dots, 4 Yellow Dots
Enable - 3 Green Dots, 3 Yellow Dots
Azeri - 3 Green Dots, 3 Yellow Dots
Octagonal - 2 Green Dots, 6 Yellow Dots
Imperatriz - 2 Green Dots, 5 Yellow Dots
Lonhro - 2 Green Dots, 5 Yellow Dots, 1 Red Dot
Avantage - 2 Green Dots, 4 Yellow Dots, 2 Red Dots
Our Maizcay - 2 Green Dots, 4 Yellow Dots, 2 Red Dots
Levante - 2 Green Dots, 3 Yellow Dots, 3 Red Dots
Legarto - 2 Green Dots, 5 Yellow Dot, 1 Red Dot
Eulogy - 1 Green Dot, 6 Yellow Dots, 1 Red Dot
It may appear from the above lists that it is an easy task to breed an elite horse by utilising the Green Dots programme but as astute breeders know this is only the first step in the process nevertheless a very important one in getting onto the front foot.
Contact us now to let us put you on the front foot with your breeding ventures to produce potential stars like the above.
AN EXCITING NEW ADVANCED PEDIGREE ASSESSMENT PLATFORM LIKE NO OTHER!
Premier Pedigrees is delighted to advise that it will be working over the next 12 months utilising the recently released Pedigrees 360 Dot Matrix programme.
This programme has essentially been designed for elite breeding farms and major thoroughbred Studs around the World.
So here is your opportunity to benefit from this elite programme as an equally important smaller player in our wonderful Industry in both Australia and New Zealand.
Yearling Sales Selection
Ready To Run / Horses In Training Selection
Broodmare and Weanling Sales Selection
Online Auction Sales Selection
A powerful new assessment platform with proven accuracy to avoid costly mistakes.
Eliminates guesswork. Assesses like the mind of Tesio, aspiring towards excellence via the Green Dots as carried by the World's best racehorses both past and present.
Provides heads-up important information for breeders, trainers, Sales agents / selectors and prospective buyers. You simply cannot afford to be without it!
Is your horse worth retaining or should it be moved on?
Assessment Price Indicator: $30 per horse.
We can assess your mare/s with their best stallion matches via the Dot Matrix programme for all stallions based in any State in Australia or in New Zealand.
Assessment Price Indicator: $150 per broodmare ( extra $30 per State if more than one State is requested for stallion assessment ).
Yearling Sales Selection:
Logistics including time constraints may prevent us assessing full catalogues but ideal if you have a narrowed group of selected yearlings to inspect or condensing larger initial lists.
Assessment Price Indicator: $10 per yearling, price negotiable if large numbers applicable.
Ready To Run / Horses In Training Selection:
Same comments applicable as for Yearling Sales Selection immediately above.
Assessment Price Indicator: $10 per horse, price negotiable if large numbers applicable.
Broodmare and Weanling Selection:
Same comments applicable as for Yearling Sales Selection above.
Assessment Price Indicator: $10 per broodmare or weanling, price negotiable if large numbers applicable.
Online Auction Sales Selection:
Ideal for assessing individual lots or a number of lots.
Assessment Price Indicator: $30 per horse.
As individual requirements may vary for all of the above categories we recommend that you email us at email@example.com to ascertain a custom price where considering large numbers of horses being assessed under the Dot Matrix programme.
For New Zealand clients, payments can be made directly via direct online banking ( we will provide you with our details ) and for Australia based clients payments can be easily made via Mastercard or Visa online via the Contact section of our website www.premierpedigrees.com.
We request payment in advance of work to be undertaken.
Federico Tesio remains recognised as the greatest thoroughbred breeder of all time, a mastercraftsman without peer at having produced one elite horse after the other.
Here at Premier Pedigrees I have always considered myself to have a spiritual connection with the "Wizard of Dormello" some 70 years after his death.
Tesio died in 1954, also the year I was born and ironically also the Chinese Year of the Horse.
The stars align.
Recently, I had the privilege of attending an interactive Thoroughbred Pedigrees seminar/workshop in Cambridge hosted by Melbourne's Leo Tsatsaronis, many current breeders may remember as the founder/developer of the G1 Goldmine 20/20 mating programme that accompanies the websites of most Studs around the world for breeders to utilise in matching their mares to a Stud's stallion roster.
Leo has since sold this programme which was predominantly based on the Graded ( Group ) success of sireline crosses.
The primary purpose of the seminar/workshop in Cambridge was for Leo, amongst other things, to unveil a new breeding programme which I have chosen to title "Breeding To The Green Dots".
Fundamentally, it is a Dot Matrix programme ( Green Dots are aspirational, Yellow Dots quite acceptable and Red Dots largely to be avoided ) in any given mating or pedigree.
It is a programme that portrays the "full picture" as it takes into account the full pedigree of the dam ( both sides ) as well as that of the stallion ( both sides ) hence all four pedigree quartiles and is based on Cluster Theory and associated Critical Mass in the 7th through to the 9th generation of a proposed pedigree with the focus being on minimising genetic variation in order to increase the probability of producing offspring with characteristics pertaining to those of the targeted ancestors.
The rationale here is to breed mares to stallions holding like cluster patterns to their own, genetic reinforcement if you like.
As a basis for the programme, 250 Horse Of The Year's were used as a sample pool and Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence applied ( the wonders of modern technology and a very good software administrator ) to identify deep linebreeding patterns present in elite racehorses.
From these appeared clear ancestral combinations in most champions, their attributes being overlayed with the inbreeding co-efficients of the horse, the sire and the dam.
This exercise also detected the presence of negative combinations found in most slow horses as well as finding at the 9th generation there was a difference in champion male and female horses hence the need for a different analytical model for each sex.
Some 48 determinants/criteria found in these elite performers has been condensed to just 8 ( the dominant ones ) forming the basis of the X ( horizontal ) axis of the matrix with the Y ( vertical ) axis representative of a mathematical formula ( intellectual property therefore unable to be disclosed ) determining where the dot is to be placed be it Red, Yellow or Green in colour.
The matrix has 6 horizontal bands running through it with an invisible 7th band above these.
The bottom band is Very Slow whilst the band immediately above it is Slow.
Both of these categories are associated with Red Dots.
The next band up is Competitive which can feature Group 1 winners, some multiple, but not considered champions. This band is normally the home of the Yellow Dots.
Above the Competitive band we find the Champion & Chef-De-Race/Reines Du Course band.
The top band of the cluster attributes is referred to as the Tesio band.
At the top of this band is the "area of aspiration" known as the O Level ( standing for Off The Charts ).
The Champion, Champion & Chef-De-Race/Reines Du Course, Tesio and Off The Charts ( O Level ) bands are the domain of the Green Dots and to where all breeders should aspire in the quest for breeding superior racehorses.
In summary, to breed a top horse one should aspire towards as many Green Dots as possible but it is quite acceptable to have a few Yellow Dots and one Red Dot with two Red Dots perhaps stretching things a little.
Of course, the old maxim of breeding will prevail in any breeding programme, there will always be an exception to the rule, one prime example being smart Australian sprinter Redzel whose cluster profile portrays one Green Dot, three Yellow Dots and four Red Dots.
But Redzel is by far the exception rather than the rule.
Breeders should also note under this new programme that it is also possible that a mating may not reveal a dot ( of any colour ) in one or more of the X-axis determinants. Some matings may only reflect three or four dots ( of any colour ) as opposed to a complement of eight dots meaning those determinants are not met in the pedigree of the foal you are breeding.
This should not be taken as a negative in the mating and is no condemnation on that mating.
Perhaps the greatest single strength of what we have termed "Breeding To The Green Dots"is that it can be readily tested ( just like Federico Tesio used to do with his thoughts and observations as a philosopher and a scientist ) on all the great horses of the past and presentand it's revelations we have found to be amazingly accurate.
Elite racehorses such as Winx, Bonecrusher, Surround, Danehill, Luskin Star, Our Poetic Prince, American Pharoah, Dubai Millenium and a couple from yesteryear in Hyperion and Kindergarten all possess 4x Green Dots in the OTC ( Off The Charts ) position whilst Goldikova, Sunline, Leilani, Frankel, Galilee and another couple from yesteryear in Round Table and Carbine all hold 3x Green Dots in the OTC position.
Breed-shaping stallion Danzig has 5 of his 6 Green Dots in the OTC position.
We also find elite broodmares Plucky Liege possessing a cluster profile of 8x Green Dots with 2 being found in the OTC position, Somethingroyal 5 of her 6 Green Dots are in the OTC position and La Troienne and Dancing Show have 4 of their 6 Green Dots in the OTC position.
It is probably fair to say that as a broodmare there is a fair chance that the stronger the racehorse cluster profile then the stronger her capability of producing an elite runner using the "Breeding To The Green Dots" programme.
This begs the question, is all lost with breeding from a mare whose cluster profile is only one of Yellow Dots and Red Dots?
Short answer here is no!
It is possible to upgrade such a mare with the "right stallion" utilising the Green Dots programme.
Let's take a "high end" example.
Urban Sea's own cluster profile is one of 3x Yellow Dots and 3x Red Dots.
Breeding her to Sadler's Wells utilising the Green Dots programme saw the resultant foal ( Galileo ) derive a cluster profile of 3x Green Dots with 2 in the OTC position as well as 5x Yellow Dots.
Gone are the Red Dots that his dam Urban Sea held.
Here at Premier Pedigrees we decided to run our own tests on the Green Dots programme and what better horses to test it on than the GOAT ( greatest of all time ) of thoroughbred breeding Federico Tesio himself.
We have not chosen all horses that Tesio either bred or purchased in from outside but we believe we have selected most of his recognised ones which include 17 male racehorses, 8 of his female homebred racehorses and 10 non-homebred mares which he purchased mostly as yearlings from Sales in either England or France.
When you see the following three lists it is very easy to get the impression that either Leo Tsatsaronis's Dot Matrix programme has cracked the Tesio "secret code of breeding" or Tesio had grasped the fundamentals of the Green Dot programme long before Leo came along.
If the latter, then Tesio truly shines on a pedestal like no other as he did not have the helping hand of modern day computers with their Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence capabilities.
Assessment of Federico Tesio Horses by the Dot Matrix:
Male Racehorses Homebred:
Nearco - 7 Green ( 1 x OTC ), 1 Yellow
Ribot - 2 Green, 4 Yellow, 2 Red
Braque - 7 Green ( 3 x OTC ), 1 Yellow
Cavaliere D'Arpino - 8 Green
Bellini - 5 Green ( 3 x OTC ), 2 Yellow
Tenerani - 7 Green ( 4 x OTC ), 1 Yellow
Donatello - 5 Green ( 2 x OTC ), 2 Yellow
Apelle - 8 Green ( 6 x OTC )
Toulouse Lautrec - 7 Green ( 2 x OTC ), 1 Yellow
Guido Reni - 6 Green ( 2 x OTC ), 2 Yellow
Niccolo Dell'Arca - 6 Green ( 2 x OTC ), 2 Yellow
Botticelli - 5 Green ( 1 x OTC ), 3 Yellow
Michelangelo - 6 Green ( 3 x OTC ), 2 Yellow
Daumier - 4 Green ( 1 x OTC ), 3 Yellow
Jacopa Del Sellaio - 5 Green ( 3 x OTC ), 3 Yellow
Scopas - 7 Green ( 4 x OTC ), 1 Yellow
Cranach - 8 Green ( 5 x OTC )
Female Homebred Racehorses:
Nogara - 5 Green, 3 Yellow
Romanella - 5 Green ( 3 x OTC ), 3 Yellow
Delleana - 4 Green ( 1 x OTC ), 3 Yellow
Tofanella - 7 Green ( 2 x OTC ), 1 Yellow
Tokamura - 7 Green ( 4 x OTC ), 1 Yellow
Bernina - 7 Green ( 3 x OTC ), 1 Yellow
Buonamica - 6 Green ( 3 x OTC ), 1 Yellow
Donatella - 4 x Green ( 1 x OTC )
Females Purchased ( non-homebred ):
Catnip - 6 Green ( 3 x OTC ), 2 Yellow
Spring Chicken - 6 Green ( 2 x OTC ), 2 Yellow
Chuette - 7 Green ( 2 x OTC ), 1 Yellow
Vice Versa - 7 Green ( 2 x OTC ), 1 Yellow
Bunworry - 4 Green ( 2 x OTC ), 4 Yellow
Duccia Di Bouninsegna - 8 Green ( 2 x OTC )
Bella Minna - 5 Green ( 2 x OTC ), 3 Yellow
Jiffy - 4 Green ( 2 x OTC ), 3 Yellow
Fidia - 7 Green ( 5 x OTC ), 1 Yellow
Jenny Hampton - 8 Green ( 2 x OTC )
In summing up, whilst Pedigree 360 have designed a breeding programme that is primarily targeted at elite breeders and major Studs worldwide, we feel extremely privileged as a pedigree consultancy here to assist boutique and smaller breeders to have been allowed to subscribe to a breeding programme that is futuristic but at the same time closely aligns with how the incomparable Federico Tesio bred and acquired so many of his champion racehorses one after another.
Go the Green Dots, something which every astute breeder can now aspire to in their future planned matings in the quest to produce their own superior performing racehorses.
Don't delay, contact us now!
In the modern history of the Melbourne Cup first it was Vintage Crop ( 1993 ) and then Media Puzzle ( 2002 ) that aroused the interest of leviathan Australian owners and trainers to the European staying horse.
Ever since Makybe Diva's famous treble in this race 2003,2004 and 2005 the race has been largely at the mercy of European shuttlers ( a few staying on ) swinging attention from Kiwi bred staying horses to those coming from the Northern Hemisphere.
We have seen Americain ( 2010 ), Dunaden ( 2011 ), Green Moon ( 2012 ), Protectionist ( 2014 ), Almandin ( 2016 ), Rekindling ( 2017 ), Cross Counter ( 2018 ), Twilight Payment ( 2020 ) and Gold Trip ( 2022 ) putting a stranglehold on the race for mostly European stables.
No surprises then that leading Australian owners and trainers, along with their associated bloodstock agents have turned their attention to sourcing their ultimate stayers, not from New Zealand as had previously been the case, but from Europe and in particular from the United Kingdom where emphasis was being placed on up and running types with already demonstrated staying ability.
One such candidate sourced in 2022 by owner Ozzie Kheir is Soulcombe ( Frankel - Ribbons, by Manduro ) already a Group 3 winner in England when purchased.
Soulcombe had been secured out of the yard of top Newmarket trainer William Haggas ( currently campaigning Dubai Honour and Alcohol Free in Australia and widely touted to be opening a satellite stable in Australia ) as an impressive winner of the Group 3 Queen Elizabeth Stakes ( 2600m ).
Placed in the capable hands of leading Australian trainer Chris Waller, Soulcombe debuted at Flemington on 5 November 2022 in the Group 3 Queen's Cup ( also 2600m ) surprising most by coming from last to win effortlessly romping away from his rivals, an effort that had him immediately installed as early favourite for the 2023 Melbourne Cup by local bookies.
Put aside after that impressive victory and playing the patient game, Soulcombe resumed on 4 February 2023 in the Drinkwise Mile ( 1600m ) at Randwick and after dropping out early he ran on only fairly, if appearing somewhat one-paced, finishing unplaced ( sixth ) some four and a quarter lengths from winner hot favourite Banju ( Benfica ).
Another start in Sydney this time over 2000m also saw Soulcombe perform without flattering prompting his connections to be dismissive of his attempts at the shorter distances and stipulating that distances of 2400m and 2600m were his forte.
His most recent start was in the Roy Higgins Quality ( 2600m ) back left-handed on the much roomier Flemington track seeing him much more comfortable and returning to his old self when idling along at the rear of the field and then mowing down runner after runner down the long Flemington home straight catching all except tearaway NZ bred winner Goldman ( Verdi ) by an ever decreasing two and three-quarter lengths much to the chagrin of his connections who were hoping that race would be Soulcombe's ticket to automatic entry into the 2023 Melbourne Cup field of starters.
Not to be deterred, Soulcombe will get 5 further opportunities to acquire automatic entry into the 2023 Melbourne Cup field and it would be a wise punter who bets against him making the field via this means of entry between now and the first Tuesday in November.
Current plans are for a let-up now for Soulcombe in order to bring him back firing on all cylinders for the Spring.
Let us now have a look at the pedigree of Soulcombe and his Tesiopower Dosage Indicators to shed further light on whether we think he is a good chance of winning the 2023 Melbourne Cup.
Pedigree Profile for Soulcombe:
We see a number of key features in Soulcombe's pedigree pointing towards his ability to stay a testing 3200 metres.
He is by the undefeated Frankel ( a son of ultimate stamina sire Galileo ) and out of the mare Ribbons, by Manduro ( a son of another great stamina influence in German sire Monsun ).
Monsun has already produced two recent Melbourne Cup victors in his sons Protectionist and Fiorente.
Soulcombe also holds the full "Special pattern" at 5x6 in his bloodlines through the great bluehen's daughter Fairy Bridge ( as found behind Sadler's Wells in Frankel ) and son Nureyev ( found behind Soviet Star, the granddamsire of Ribbons ).
This pattern is to be found in many well-performed Stakes winners especially over ground.
Soulcombe's 5th through to his 7th generation are chock full of male ancestors associated with stamina attributes.
To make these more likely influential most are to be found in desirable sex-balance in the generational levels ( 5th to 7th ) that are known for stamina consolidation in a pedigree.
Let us detail a few of these.
Perhaps the most likely influential for Soulcombe is his resultant 7x7 reverse-sex cross balance to Persian Gulf which provides him with not only a favourable breeding core but also a likely potential "engine room".
Persian Gulf ( Bahram - Double Life ) was a half-brother to Precipitation.
He was a slow maturing horse not racing until 3 years old and not winning in his Classic season despite finishing 4th in both the Derby and the St Leger.
But at 4 Persian Gulf was to come good becoming arguably the best horse in the United Kingdom winning 4 of his 5 starts including the prestigious Coronation Cup ( 2400m ), injury ( a fractured cannon bone ) terminating his racing career less than a month later, his 9 starts included 4 wins and 2 seconds as well as those two 4ths.
His dam Double Life was a top class racemare who also excelled in the breeding barn going on to become the female line ancestress of the likes of Meld, Charlottown, Kalaglow, Ramonti and Shahtoush as well as being the dam of Precipitation ( Hurry On ).
Other influential male ancestors to be found in favourable sex-balance include the likes of Acropolis via son Espresso ( Frankel ) and daughter Mariapolis ( Ribbons ),Vandale via son Herbager ( Frankel ) and daughter Marie D'Anjou ( Ribbons ), Birkhahn via son Literat ( Ribbons ) and daughter Almyra ( Frankel ) and the large heart foundation sire Princequillo via son Round Table ( Ribbons ) and daughter Rose Bower ( Frankel ).
Each of these sex-balances occur at 7x7 in Soulcombe's pedigree and are desirably cross-duplicated ( provided equally by each parent ).
Another stamina oriented male forebear in Crepello also presides in Soulcombe's bloodlines in balanced fashion at 7x7 coming through son Busted and daughter Electric Flash with both of these coming through the pedigree of Soulcombe's dam Ribbons.
Being a male horse it is also useful to detect whether Soulcombe has been equipped with what is known in the breeding game as Colt Factors.
These are useful pedigree attributes found in top male horses.
To possess Colt Factors we merely have to look for the presnce of a superior male ancestor through both a son and a daughter.
In the ideal world these are preferred at the highly influential 4th or 5th generational levels but slightly beyond these can also be useful especially if running in consecutive generations.
Whilst Soulcombe does possess Colt Factors the closest these can be found are at 6x7 to Raise A Native ( a leading son of Native Dancer ) through his famed son Mr Prospector and daughter Where You Lead ( granddam of staying influence Rainbow Quest ) both to be found in Soulcombe's sire Frankel.
Tesiopower Dosage Index Indicators:
Whilst aptitude indicators have long been held as controversial in many quarters we have found them to be a very handy tool and mostly reliable as an indicator of a young horse's likely racing aptitude in the 20 or so years we have been working with them.
They are based on the presences of Chefs De Race ( superior racetrack male ancestors ) who are allocated points based on the generation in which they occur in a horse's pedigree bearing in mind that only the subject horse's ( in this case Soulcombe ) first 5-generations are taken into account.
These allocated points for each Chefs De Race are then put into various dominant attribute categories. Some Chefs De Race can have points occur in more than one category relating to their specific distinguishing attributes.
We will now profile the Tesiopower Dosage Indexes that apply for Soulcombe and briefly comment on what these indicate to us.
Brilliant ( precocity, early comer ) 4.0
Intermediate ( speed, acceleration, turn of foot ) 3.0
Classic ( class inheritance ) 13.0
Solid ( middle distance staying inheritance ) 3.5
Professional ( ultimate staying trip, 3200m ) 0.5
So what does the above tell us about Soulcombe and his chances of successfully grasping the distance of a Melbourne Cup?
His profile is typical of a staying ( stamina ) horse.
Not really a precocious type and with a very modest dosage of speed inheritance this is indicating a horse that would most likely appreciate a solid pace ( will there be any "rabbits" this year? ) in a Melbourne Cup especially as his racing style is one of dropping well back early on.
Soulcombe has abundant class inheritance which is a critical category for a Melbourne Cup.
He also possesses a sound Solid category meaning no bother and quite at home at the Classic distance ( 2400m ) and the St Leger distance of 2600m.
His Professional category could have been a shade stronger to provide full confidence at 3200m.
Whilst there is no Zabeel presence ( so powerful in this category ) it should not be forgotten that he does hold the close-up presences of both Galileo and Monsun ( each side of his pedigree ) which is a big plus factor in his chances of running out a solid 3200m.
And he has the watchful guidance of 2021 Melbourne Cup winning trainer Chris Waller to also assist him.
Finally, for interest sake more than anything else, we will list the Chefs De Race by category that make up the indicative Aptitude Profile for Soulcombe.
Blushing Groom 0.5, Last Tycoon 1.0, Mr Prospector 0.5, Northern Dancer 2.0
Danehill 2.0, Danzig 1.0
Blushing Groom 0.5, Danehill 2.0, Danzig 1.0, His Majesty 1.0, Last Tycoon 1.0, Mr Prospector 0.5, Northern Dancer 2.0, Nureyev 1.0, Rainbow Quest 1.0, Sadler's Wells 2.0, Surumu 1.0
Rainbow Quest 1.0, Sadler's Wells 2.0, Stage Door Johnny 0.5
Stage Door Johnny 0.5
Given that Soulcombe is the current Melbourne Cup favourite, there will be more than a few interested souls praying for his success come the first Tuesday in November and the above indicies could go a little way towards allaying any fears.
Good luck Soulcombe and we all hope you race according to your handsome good looks!
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The sons and grandsons of Japanese wonder stallion Deep Impact have had a hard row to hoe in Australia against the myriad of local speed sires that prevail.
Tosen Stardom and Mikki Isle have pioneered the way along with an assist from Real Steel and now the newbies Saxon Warrior and Fierce Impact.
The rekindling of the Turn-To / Hail To Reason / Halo paternal sireline has also seen a refreshing resurgence of a bloodline that was beginning to wane in the wake of the utter dominance of the Phalaris sireline predominantly via Northern Dancer.
In New Zealand, the impact has been far more far-reaching than in Australia and far more immediate.
It begs the question, for how long has the New Zealand broodmare genepool been hanging out for this new bloodline injection?
Rich Hill Stud's Satono Aladdin has led the way here through class sons Tokyo Tycoon and Sacred Satono, so much so that at this present moment in time he has rocketed to a clear lead in the 2022-23 2YO Sires Premiership Table*.
It is acknowledged that this could change as Tokyo Tycoon's victory in the Group 1 Sistema Stakes is currently under RIU judicial review.
But the exciting aspect is that the Deep Impact influence shapes as promising to say the very least and is far from one dimensional with Satono Aladdin's daughter Pennyweka recently being a decisive winner of the Group 1 New Zealand Oaks ( 2400m ) at Trentham.
Watch out Savabeel, there is some truly serious competition looming on the near horizon!
And now we have another son of Deep Impact in Novarra Park's Staphanos landing his first Group 1 winner from his very first crop in gritty Manawatu Sires Produce Stakes ( 1400m ) winner the filly Pignan.
Right amongst these successful results we have Windsor Park Stud announcing they have secured Profondo ( another son of Deep Impact ) to commence Stud duties also in 2023.
What a time to capitalise on this sudden groundswell!
The win of Pignan last weekend was yet another feather in the cap for highly respected former Trackside breeding show presenter and Nearco Stud head representative Adrian Clark and his astute judgment at selecting Group 1 winning fillies at a very tender young age.
Pignan's Group 1 success follows closely on the heels of Clark's success with Jennifer Eccles in the Group 1 New Zealand Oaks just a couple of seasons ago.
These two results tell us that Clark not only looks for "value" in his investments but is also prepared to do the "hard yards" in terms of putting a lot of time into studying the pedigrees of these young fillies even going back beyond the immediate generational levels readily available at first glance.
So what do we see in Hirondelle's ( the dam of Pignan ) breeding match with Staphanos?
We firstly see speed being placed underneath Staphanos. A bit like a Storm Cat mare being bred to Deep Impact to produce Satono Aladdin.
Hirondelle is by Sepoy ( a Mr Prospector / Danzig cross stallion ) and out of a Pins mare.
But more than this, Hirondelle possesses an "engine room" ( or breeding core )that is based on the blisteringly quick Lunchtime, being bred on a 5x4 reverse-sex cross to Lunchtime.
Interestingly, it is at these two generational levels that the pedigree gurus Hampton and Harper were both in agreement were the most effective positions in a pedigree.
Ably supporting this speed feature, Hirondelle also holds 3 lines of Star Kingdom which are favourably sex-balanced through the latter's famed sons Biscay and Kaoru Star as well as his daughter Ritmar who features as the dam of Taipan II, 4th damsire of Hirondelle.
What then did the breeding match of Staphanos and Hirondelle offer to their daughter Pignan?
It presented Pignan with a potential "engine room" ( or breeding core ) for starters seeing her bred on a 7x7 reverse-sex cross to Kentucky Derby runner-up Native Dancer better known as a sprinter. Native Dancer was labelled "The Flying Grey" with his racing style being likened to a modern day Chautauqua notable for dropping to the rear then producing memorable barnstorming last to first home straight finishes.
Native Dancer is also one superior male ancestor that is soughtafter in multiple presences to underpin modern day pedigrees with his speed influences.
Pignan's pedigree also sees her carrying linebreeding to the sharp male class influence Sir Ivor at 6x6x6 through his Lady Rebecca ( herself a daughter of large heart mare Pocahontas ) featuring in Staphanos via Deep Impact and Ivory Wand as well as son Sir Tristram, the latter two present in the pedigree of Hirondelle.
Sir Ivor is a highly influential male forebear and an excellent presence to have in balance in any pedigree.
Finally, Pignan possesses what is known in breeding circles as Filly Factors.
These are found via two daughters of a superior male ancestor and through a son and a daughter of a superior female ancestor.
The great Secretariat provides Pignan with two daughters at 7x6 namely via Six Crowns ( in Staphanos ) and Secrettame ( in Hirondelle ) whilst bluehen Natalma is present in her pedigree via son Northern Dancer and daughter Spring Adieu ( found behind Danehill in Sepoy, sire of Hirondelle ).
As a quick last mention, Pignan is also balanced to Bold Ruler at 7x7 through his son Secretariat and a rare daughter Laredo Lass ( granddam of French Deputy in Staphanos ).
Luigi Muollo, owner of Novarra Park where Staphanos stands, is already on record as saying that he was not expecting this stallion to leave 2YO Group 1 winners and that his progeny would excel once they got to 1600m and beyond as 3YO's and upwards so Pignan is real testimony of what can be achieved with speed mares' under Staphanos and the Deep Impact sireline in general.
Successful jockey Irishman Joe Doyle's first words on dismounting last Saturday at Awapuni was that he cannot wait until Pignan steps over more ground next season and with a damsireline that includes Pins, Zabeel, Zamazaan, Taipan II and Summertime why shouldn't he and Adrian Clark be full of confidence as to what the future holds.
May it be one of deep impact!
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Most astute breeders both in Australia and New Zealand know that getting a "good type" is half the battle when breeding a superior horse but equally they also know that planning a mating using sound breeding techniques is just as important if not more so.
Saturday's two biggest races in Australia and New Zealand the A$16.3 million The Everest ( 1200m ) and the Livamol Classic ( 2040m ) were won by horses where it was obvious that their genotype and phenotype both came out to play.
Three year old gelding Giga Kick ( Scissor Kick - Rekindled Applause, by Royal Applause ) came into The Everest with a picket-fence formline unbeaten in all four previous starts. It was a big step up racing against Australia's best Open Class sprinters including the World Champion Nature Strip.
But aspire to great heights Giga Kick did coming from the clouds with Hillary-like all conquering determination.
This 1200m The Everest win came off the back of a 4-length maiden win at Sale in February followed by a good win at Flemington in July, both as a two year old.
As an early three year old in August he scored in the Vain Stakes ( Gr 3, 1100m ) and then followed this up with victory in the Danehill Stakes ( Gr 2, 1100m ).
Let us now look at what immediately catches the eye in his 7-generational pedigree compilation.
The first notable feature is that both Giga Kick's parents ( Scissor Kick and Rekindled Applause ) are from the Northern Dancer sireline whilst their respective dams are from the Rainbow Quest ( Nasrullah ) sireline.
This sees Giga Kick 5x5 paternally linebred to Northern Dancer but also carrying a 4x3 cross-duplicate sex-balance to Rainbow Quest through son Quest For Fame ( damsire of Scissor Kick ) and daughter Rekindled Affair ( granddam of Giga Kick ).
A quick perusal of Giga Kick's 5-generational Tesiopower Dosage Report can be a little misleading here in this instance as it depicts a horse of strong middle distance capability rather than one of sizzling sprinting prowess.
So where may have Giga Kick's great turn of foot emanated?
We are suggesting here that one has to look at his 6th and 7th generational removes to see a concentration of linebreeding to three superior females as perhaps holding the likely key to his fleet-footedness.
We will commence with Flaming Page to whom Giga Kick holds sex-balanced linebreeding to at 6x7x6x6.
Rekindled Applause ( dam of Giga Kick ) possesses a solitary female only line of Flaming Page via the latter's daughter Fleur ( dam of the very sharp The Minstrel, granddamsire of Royal Applause ) so it makes perfectly good sense to balance this up with a stallion that is strongly linebred to Nijinsky II ( a son of Flaming Page and half-brother to Fleur ) at at 4x5x4. The added benefit here also is that Scissor Kick holds sex-balanced lines of Nijinsky II for potential maximum impact.
Another huge female influence is that of Family 8 member Stolen Hour ( best known as the dam of Best In Show ) but not through to the more illustrious "Woodbine" branch but rather that of Torpenhow.
Rekindled Applause ( and therefore also Giga Kick ) trace directly tail female to Stolen Hour ( 5th dam of Rekindled Applause and 6th dam of Giga Kick ) via her daughter Stolen Date.
Stolen Hour also features in Rekindled Applause in her paternal pedigree through another daughter Best In Show ( a half-sister to Stolen Date ) who is the granddam of her great grandsire Try My Best.
How then does this relate to the pedigree of Scissor Kick?
Scissor Kick's sire the seemingly incomparable Redoute's Choice is also tail female to Stolen Hour ( his 5th dam, and just like Try My Best also through Best In Show ).
Whereas Try My Best came through Best In Show's daughter Sex Appeal, Redoute's Choice has come through another daughter in Show Lady ( 3rd dam of Redoute's Choice and a half-sister to Sex Appeal ).
Whilst neither Stolen Hour nor daughter Best In Show are sex-balanced, history with past results has shown that they do not require to be.
One other important female duplication that is very easy to take for granted is that of Natalma.
She is sex-balanced in Giga Kick's pedigree at 6x6x7x7x6x6 in a desirable sex-balanced cross-duplication via her son Northern Dancer and daughter Spring Adieu with Scissor Kick providing the key female balancing line.
Scissor Kick may have been considered a "failure" in Australia ( standing at Arrowfield Stud to 2019 ), leaving only one other Stakes winner in Listed winner Dzsenifer, but he did descend maternally from a female line that has also brought us the likes of Dansili, Champs Elysees and Raise The Flag ( all stallions reasonably well known in Australia and New Zealand ).
Having served a couple of seasons in France since his Australian departure and recently sold to Morocco, he will never be a forgotten stallion because of the deeds of son Giga Kick who may just have "girlpower" to thank for his "turn of foot" and Group 1 glory.
From the moment she first set foot on the racetrack it was obvious Mustang Valley was heading places and was going to greatly benefit with maturity.
A recent runner-up to the promising young Vadamos mare La Crique in the Arrowfield Plate,and with no La Crique to contend with as well as a step up in distance and a deep track all factors were in Mustang Valley's favour in the Livamol Classic ( 2040m ) and saw her romp home to a decisive victory also landing her sire Vanbrugh ( Encosta De Lago ) his first Group 1 Stakes winner.
But as we all know, Group 1 winners don't just happen without a good deal of hard work and meticulous planning and that begins with planning a mating that can be effective on the racetrack.
Bred by Windsor Park Stud, it is plainly obvious that considerable thought has gone into constructing the pedigree of Mustang Valley ( Vanbrugh - Cream Of The Crop, by New Approach( Galileo )), in fact it is a genetic masterpiece and one gains the distinct impression that it may well be the work of Windsor Park's resident pedigree guru Mr Steve Till.
Without any shadow of doubt the outstanding feature of Mustang Valley's pedigree is the double Rasmussen Factor upon which she is bred.
And neither is sex-balanced for maximum potential impact however they are cross-duplicated ( contributed by both proposed parents ).
Both occur in the highly favoured 4th and 5th generational positions so highly favoured by past pedigree doyens such as Harold Hampton and Clive Harper as being the most effective generational positions to be of influence in a pedigree.
The first of these occurs to Fairy Bridge ( a daughter of the highly influential mare Special ) at 4x5 through her sons the full-brothers Fairy King ( grandsire of Vanbrugh ) and Sadler's Wells ( great grandsire of Cream Of The Crop ).
As both are by Northern Dancer, this makes Mustang Valley, like Giga Kick, also paternally linebred to Northern Dancer but at 4x5 as opposed to Giga Kick being at 5x5.
The second Rasmussen Factor ( breeding back to superior females through different individuals within the first 5-generations ) occurs to broodmare gem Benediction at 5x4.Many readers / breeders will instantly recognise this name as synonymous with the maternal family of Australian great Might And Power.
Vanbrugh's damsire Lucky Owners is out of Miss Priority, a daughter of Benediction.
And here comes the big connecting factor.
Cream Of The Crop carries Benediction as her 3rd dam via another Buenos Aires, a half-sister to Miss Priority ( Miss Priority being by Kaapstad whilst Buenos Aires is by Rainbow Quest ).
This sees Cream Of The Crop as being from the same family which produced the mighty Might And Power.
For those breeders appreciating getting involved in debates on close-up doubles of Danehill, Mustang Valley presents another example of a top horse who carries a 4x4 cross-duplicated male double of Danehill ( through sons Lucky Owners and Danehill Dancer ).
Beyond the above identified closer-up cross-duplications to key male and female presences, we also see cross-duplicate sex-balances occuring to the symbiotic presences Northern Dancer at 4x7x6x5x6 and to Mr Prospector at 5x6 with in both instances Vanbrugh providing the key female balancing line ( Fanfreluche and Rolls ).
Vanbrugh also injects new balanced doubles of both Sir Tristram ( via son Kaapstad and daughter Star Of The Knight, the latter Vanbrugh's 3rd dam ) and Sir Ivor ( via son Sir Tristram and daughter Grand Luxe ) into the pedigree of Mustang Valleywhilst cross-duplicated sex-balances also prevail to Klairon ( via Lorenzaccio and New Way ) and Round Table ( via son Artaius and daughter Isolt ) as well as to Herbager ( via son Appiani and daughter I Will Follow ) in what is a very well-rounded pedigree compilation.
Whereas the Tesiopower Dosage Report for Giga Kick has seen that horse so far defying his inherent aptitude performance ( showing a sprinting rather than staying preference perhaps for the time being at least ), Mustang Valley has very much stayed true to her inherent predicted profile which is telling us that she will optimally operate at distances around 2000-2200m but 2400m may not be an assignment too far given her favoured racing style.
Time will tell.
It cannot be denied that the outcome of last Saturday's Desert Gold Stakes ( Gr 3, 1600m ) may hold a valuable key into also determining the likely result of March's NZ Oaks ( Gr 1, 2400m ) also to be run on the hallowed turf at Trentham.
Whilst current 3YO Fillies Series leader Belle En Rouge ( Burgundy ) noticeably skipped the Desert Gold Stakes, there was an awful lot to like about the performances of convincing winner La Crique ( Vadamos ) and the third horse Love Letter ( Wrote ) from an impending NZ Oaks perspective.
And both have more than just the letter "L" in common.
Both have a strong "Special" connection in their bloodlines, the same connection as present in the 2022 New Year's Day Perth Cup ( Gr 2, 2400m ) winner, the Bob and Sandra Peters bred and owned Midnight Blue.
The "Special" connection we refer to is of course the broodmare bluehen Special ( Forli - Thong )a particularly powerful presence in any staying pedigree.
La Crique and Love Letter are both highly eye-catching types, La Crique seemingly a longer-legged finer-boned type that the more compact muscled low slung Love Letter.
La Crique's superior early speed allowed her to race handy ( slotting into the perfect one out and one back position ) in the Desert Gold Stakes allowing her to display her "turn of foot" when exploding past the leaders upon straightening. Her ability to run through the line was impressive, qualities not dissimilar to Amarelinha in 2021 and Jennifer Eccles in 2020.
Love Letter in contrast was devoid of early speed and go a long way back in the running but once again she ran home powerfully if not eyecatchingly ( in a manner not too dissimilar to 2020 runner-up to Jennifer Eccles in Vancooga ).
It would not surprise in the least to find Formpro's Neil Davis having recorded Love Letter as having the fastest final sectionals of the race, even better than those of winner La Crique.
But, can she afford to give La Crique such a big start in the NZ Oaks?
We will use the pedigree of Midnight Blue for comparison with both La Crique and Love Letter.
Midnight Blue holds a sex-balanced 5x5 Rasmussen Factor ( breeding back to superior females through different individuals within the first 5-generations ) to Special via the latter's daughter Fairy Bridge and son Nureyev.
La Crique is 5x6x6 sex-balance linebred to Special via son Nureyev ( in Vadamos ) and son and daughter Nureyev and Fairy Bridge in Destiny Cove ( dam of La Crique ).
Love Letter on the other hand is 5x5x6 sex-balance linebred to Special via the latter's daughters Fairy Bridge and Durrah ( both in Wrote ) and son Nureyev in Divine Rio ( dam of Love Letter ).
Technically, from a pedigree purists viewpoint, the use of Special is seen as stronger in Love Letter's pedigree as she appears through three individual siblings rather than two as is the case for La Crique.
Also, Special's positioning is potentially stronger in the pedigree of Love Letter as she is bred on a 5x6 reverse-sex cross to Special ( via Durrah, 3rd dam of Wrote ) and Nureyev ( 4th sire of Divine Rio ). This provides Love Letter not only with a desirable breeding core but also a potential "engine room" and it appears obvious here that this design is more than likely the handiwork of her co-breeder and owner Phil Weal, an avid pedigree enthusiast in his own right.
With prominent 4x4 linebreeding to Special ( through two individual daughters ) Love Letter's sire Wrote is singing out for mares with a male line of Special ( i.e. Nureyev ) for sex-balancing purposes and Divine Rio ( dam of Love Letter ) gives him exactly this being a Nureyev-line mare via the Pivotal stallion Captain Rio.
When we get to the direct maternal line ( or bottom line or family line ) we do find find ourselves swayed to that of Love Letter who traces direct maternally to Derna ( her 6th dam ).
Of course breeders and readers will instantly recognise this as the immediate family of both Carnegie ( Derna his granddam ) and Zabeel ( Derna his great granddam ). Whilst Carnegie is out of Derna's daughter Detroit, both Zabeel and Love Letter trace through another of Derna's daughters in Valderna. When we touch on these horses we are automatically thinking 2400m if not further.
Another useful comparison also prevails using the pedigree of Midnight Blue.
He is by a son of High Chaparral ( So You Think ) and out of a mare by Zabeel ( Midnight Special ).
Love Letter is also by a son of High Chaparral ( Wrote ) and from the immediate direct maternal family of Zabeel.
There are no illustrious Derna's in the direct maternal line of La Crique but what there is reflects high quality International performance.
Le Crique's dam Destiny Cove won 5 times including over 2400m at Trentham.
Granddam Whitehaven was a Gr2 winner at Deauville and great granddam White Star Line was a triple Gr 1 winner, amongst her 9 lifetime wins seeing her rated as the 2nd best 3yo filly of 1978 at 125 pounds, just one point behind arch rival Tempest Queen ( Graustark ), the latter a dual Gr 1 winner.
Amongst White Star Line's Gr 1 victories were the Alabama Stakes( 10 furlongs ), Kentucky Oaks ( 10 furlongs ) and the Delaware Oaks ( 9 furlongs ).
At Stud, White Star Line was to produce 12 individual winners including 2 Stakes winners, one being Valley Of Gold ( Shirley Heights ) winner of the Italian Oaks ( Gr 1, 2400m ).
If we were looking at 3YO colts for the NZ Derby it would also be necessary to take into account multiples of Northern Dancer ( 4 or more unbalanced male only strains ) as these were identified by the late Jack Glengarry in his work "Let's Breed A Champion Racehorse" as the likely cause of "Plodder's Syndrome" in a male racehorse. Fortunately, fillies were found to be immune from this quirky phenomena.
La Crique is linebred 5x6x5x5 to Northern Dancer in desirable sex-balance, her female line coming via 4th dam White Star Line, a daughter of Northern Dancer.
Love Letter, by contrast, could have been in trouble had she not been born a filly as she carries 4x5x6x6x6x7 linebreeding to Northern Dancer through all male only presences.
A lucky escape, perhaps, or meant to be!
Just as Midnight Blue carried Colt Factors at 6x4 to Mill Reef, we see Love Letter carrying full Filly Factors and La Crique carrying partial Filly Factors within their 7-generational pedigree charts.
Love Letter carries full Filly Factors to Special ( through son Nureyev and daughters Fairy Bridge and Durrah ) with male ancestors through two daughters being in abundance through the likes of Kris 5x4, Nijinsky II 5X5, Buckpasser 6x5, Prince John 7x6 and War Admiral 7x7.
La Crique on the other hand only possesses partial Filly Factors.
Whilst Special features through son Nureyev and daughter Fairy Bridge, there is a complete void of male ancestors featured through two daughters.
But all is not lost for La Crique because what she does possess is an impressive list of sex-balances to male ancestors particularly further out in her pedigree including the likes of Native Dancer 7x7x6x7x7, Nearco 7x7x7x7, Nebelwerfer 7x7, Hyperion 7x7, Tantieme 7x7, Lyphard 7x6 and War Admiral 7x7.
As you may be only to well aware, when multiples get this far out in a pedigree they usually act as a basis for stamina with a number of the featured presences well known for their stamina traits.
Finally, it would be remiss of us if we did not have a look at the likely Tesio dosage indicators based on the work of Frank Varola.
Whilst these have always been regarded as highly contentious and very subjective, in our experience they have been an adequate guide as to the likely aptitude and distance outcomes for the majority of horses.
As they say, better something than nothing at all when you are flying blind!
The dosage profile outcomes for both fillies are remarkably similar, Love Letter a points total of 23.0 and La Crique a points total of 22.0 so no clear advantage to either filly.
Nothing between them in the precocity ranks either with Love Letter perhaps her nostril in front with the same applying for raw speed inheritance. The Classic ( class ) factor does see La Crique in front by a small marging hence evening things out.
When it comes to middle distance ( including 2400m ) both capably master 2400m with nothing between them although there is a slight indicator that if we pushed things out to 3200m then La Crique may hold a slight advantage no doubt mainly attributable to the influence of her grandsire Monsun as we have already witnessed downunder in a couple of Melbourne Cups in more recent times.
As for the outcome of the NZ Oaks 2022, a real coin toss either way, too close to call.
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